After four consecutive months of improvement in our Supply Chain Index numbers the October 2009 Report shows a reversal to levels not seen since early 2009. While this might be a cause for concern, this increase is likely part of a normal seasonal trend that we have tracked for several years now. Corporate slowing of payments to their suppliers is common for companies managing their working capital during the holiday season. The SCI spike, which occurs each fall season, typically comes back down following the increase in cash received during the holidays, as retailers and distributors pay debts owed to the manufacturers.

However, we usually see this cycle of jumps in DBT in November and December—this year we are two months early. The question is why the early move? We could be seeing the impact of big businesses using their market weight and strong cash position to push out payments. Given this growing cash hoard by large companies, the movement in the SCI could be showing a fading confidence in the recovery. Or we could be seeing the effects of tight credit markets for small businesses forcing them to manage their cash flow by slowing payments to their suppliers to make it through the holiday season.

With a mix of news hitting every day it is fair to say the economy is trying to find a steady course. The most recently released October 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business supports the case of economic recovery as manufacturers – the early stage supply chain stakeholders — have increased output ahead of the holiday season and appear to be more confident in consumer spending. Yet today’s bankruptcy of CIT and concerns about consumer spending argue that we are in for a longer recovery. The next few months of data will bring further clarity.

A few highlights from this month’s SCI data:

• Comparing the September 2007 (6.8 days) numbers to the September 2009 (9.56 days) numbers and you’ll see that the Supply Chain Index is ~40% higher
• Commercial accounts receivable debt greater than 30 days past due is also 50% higher than September 2007
• We’ll be watching closely to see if the 2009/2010 holiday season matches past cycles, with DBT quickly dropping back to pre-holiday levels

A few weeks ago, The Wall Street Journal explained how small companies are getting paid more slowly by their large company customers while those same large companies are forcing the little guys to pay faster. Well, Cortera’s data is showing that the little guys are getting paid more slowly by their small business customers, too.

Our Small Business Index (SBI) shows that while small businesses (companies with less than 500 employees – the SBA definition) are improving, but they’re paying 25% slower than a year ago and 20% slower than the overall business average. It is also important to note the widening gap between big companies and small companies. Pre-recession, the measures for the average, small and big companies tracked in a tight range, but since late 2008 we’ve seen a significant gap open up. Small businesses have a 55% higher DBT than large companies.

This is a dangerous situation for small businesses and a bad trend for the economy as a whole. When the payment flow between small businesses slows, the resulting friction impedes their ability to plan, grow and sometimes even survive.

As covered in past Cortera SCI reports, confidence in sales normally spurs companies to grow inventories with the belief that they will be able to move those goods in the future. Cash flow to suppliers tends to tightly match the demand for their goods by the end customer. In a healthy economy companies are paying their suppliers in a timely manner as those inventories are efficiently sold to customers. In a poor economy, companies tend to slow payments to suppliers as inventory sits on the self to help manage their working capital.

Cortera’s Supply Chain Index (SCI) measures the relative health of this flow of cash to suppliers. The most recent Cortera SCI figures indicate that, while there remains more payment friction than a year ago, confidence in sales may be starting to return to more normal levels. A few trends continue from our last report in the September analysis of business accounts receivable data through August 2009:

• The amount of late A/R is decreasing. In August, the amount of A/R in the SCI more than 30 days past due fell to 10.05%, approaching levels not seen since October of 2008, an improvement of nearly 23% from its peak level in December 2008. This represents nine straight months of improvement over that high water mark. Payments more than 30 days late are often the equivalent of missing a payment. That’s a marked change in financial behavior that can signal dramatic changes in a company’s financial situation. An improvement in this measure suggests a return to normalcy and financial stability in companies.
• Late A/R, now standing at 20.9%, has also flattened out and is hovering in the ~21-23% range over the same nine month period—well off the December 2008 high of 27.1%, and nearly in line with the pre-October 2008 run up.
• With the SCI Days Beyond Terms (DBT) now standing at 8.56, on a year-over-year basis, DBT has worsened by nearly 15%. Still, with nine months of improvement behind us and a drop of by over 20% since the December 2008 peak it is clear that cash flow is improving and confidence growing.

The flow of money through the supply chain is as crucial as the flow of goods. While the flow of goods is driven by sales, the flow of money is largely influenced by a company’s confidence that those sales will continue. Strong confidence in sales normally spurs companies to invest in growth initiatives. On the other hand, a lack of confidence in sales causes companies to conserve cash and slow payments to suppliers.

Cortera’s Supply Chain Index (SCI) is a measure of financial confidence. The most recent Cortera SCI figures indicate that, while there is clearly more accounts receivable stress than a year ago, confidence in sales may be starting to return. Two interesting trends are emerging in the latest analysis of accounts receivable data through April 2009:

• The amount of late A/R is decreasing. In April, the amount of A/R in the SCI more than 30 days past due fell to 11.0%, an improvement of nearly 16% from the December 2008 level. This represents the fourth straight month of improvement over that high water mark. Payments more than 30 days late are often the equivalent of missing a payment. That’s a marked change in financial behavior that can signal dramatic changes in a company’s financial situation. An improvement in this measure suggests a return to normalcy and financial stability in companies.
• The age of late A/R is decreasing but not as fast as the amount. April’s overall Days Beyond Terms (DBT) for the SCI also improved but to a somewhat lower degree (13.8%). So less A/R is more than 30 days past due but overall late debt continues to increase in age. This implies that companies are not missing payments as often but are guarding cash while they monitor inflows.

Even with these improvements, the current A/R performance profile is significantly below than that seen prior to 4Q08. On a year-over-year basis, DBT has worsened by nearly 34%. Will these signs of returning confidence prove to be the start of a recovery or just CFOs taking a breath after a hard fall?